Boeing's 737 Max has been grounded since mid-March of last year. When Boeing presented its first-quarter 2020 results in April, it was announced that the 737 MAX production rate will gradually increase to 31 per month during 2021, with further gradual increases as market demand allows. Both Boeing and Airbus plan to cut more than 30,000 jobs in all. Your privacy is very important to us. Similarly, Airbus … This year to date, Boeing’s book-to-bill ratio, calculated as net new orders divided by deliveries, is negative due to cancellations exceeding gross orders. Next, a Continued Airworthiness Notification to the International Community (CANIC) and an Airworthiness Directive (AD) will be issued, followed by the official ungrounding of the aircraft. The number of Airbus aircraft to be built and delivered represents 8.8 years of shipments at the 2019 production level. That's something that would hurt the industry again. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. In 2008, he came up with the idea for what would eventually evolve into AeroWeb. The cases for buying stock in Airbus (OTC:EADSY) and Boeing (NYSE:BA) are pretty similar. As of July 2020, over 300 Boeing 737 Max and roughly 29 Airbus A320 family aircraft orders were cancelled. The 737 MAX is expected to remain grounded until at least August. Boeing vs. Airbus: The Aviation Industry’s Swinging Power Balance ... 12/29/2020. For example, Boeing generated $13.6 billion in FCF in 2018 (the year before the 737 MAX was grounded), representing over 15% of its current market cap. In addition, it’s easy to forget that Boeing too… An aircraft control tower. ... As 2020 came around, Boeing was reporting some alarming numbers. However, there are numbers, and there is believing in the numbers. Between June 29 and July 1, a number of 737 MAX certification flight tests were carried out by Boeing and the FAA to evaluate Boeing’s proposed changes to the automated flight control system. Airbus A320neo vs. Boeing 737 MAX 8/9. In January 2020, Boeing and Airbus delivered 13 and 31 commercial jets, respectively, compared to 46 and 39 deliveries in the same month last year. At the hearing, the FAA was heavily criticized and accused of stonewalling by senators pursuing changes to the agency’s safety role. Click here to learn more. Prior to the suspension of deliveries in March 2019, Boeing had produced and shipped 387 737 MAX jets. Engineer, investment manager and property developer. Those plans have now been shelved. Image source: Getty Images. In June, Airbus received no new orders but reported one cancellation. In February 2020, Bombardier sold their stake in the program due to financial issues, surrounding the insolvency of the train manufacturing division of the company. In October of this year, Airbus delivered 77 aircraft, 59 of which were A320s. The top aircraft fleet executive at Alaska Airlines says its decision to sell 10 Airbus A320 jets will be followed by the gradual return of 39 more leased Airbus aircraft between now and 2023. will be interesting to see, how many Max are pending to be delivered (including these, already stated as unlikely to be delivered in the books). The long-awaited trade agreement between the U.S. and China may pave the way for Boeing Co. to resume sales to the world’s second-largest … Aside from a second wave of the pandemic and associated travel restrictions, there's also the financial state of the airlines to consider. We protect your personal information as if it were our own and we do not provide or sell this information to any other group or organization. North America. For the full year 2019, Airbus landed 1,131 gross orders (363 cancellations => net of 768), thereby retaking the orders crown from Boeing. Over three days starting June 29, a number of 737 MAX certification flight tests were carried out by Boeing personnel and FAA officials to evaluate Boeing’s proposed changes to the automated flight control system. EU financial assistance to Airbus, in addition to costing Boeing billions of dollars in sales, has contributed to Airbus replacing Boeing as the world’s largest aircraft manufacturer as of 2020. The Airbus NSR (“New Short Range”) will be a short haul aircraft that can both travel a longer distance and carry more people than any A320 variant that has come before it. Why Bombardier and Embraer can’t beat Airbus and Boeing… As stated earlier, Airbus and Boeing are the two largest manufacturers in the industry. Production rate assumptions were not changed on the 747 and 767 programs. And it will be a few years beyond that for the industry to return to long-term growth trends." Boeing's prospects have also been more negatively affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, and that's likely to continue in the near future. Moreover, the slowdown in the wide-body market couldn't possibly have come at a worse time for Boeing. With just 70 deliveries this year to date, Boeing is 169 shipments behind last year’s total for the first half of the year. It shows Airbus began floating in US market after order of 25 A320 aircraft from Jet Blue. On that basis, Airbus is the better buy. On April 27, Airbus announced that it had begun the process of furloughing more than 6,000 employees in Europe, including 3,200 production workers at its wing manufacturing site in Broughton, Wales, and another 3,000 workers in France. Widely criticized former CEO Dennis Muilenburg told investors a RTS would occur in October 2019, but the company is still waiting for it deep into 2020. As of the end of November, Airbus had captured 380 net orders in 2018, leaving it well behind Boeing, which had secured 690 net firm orders by that point. Navigating the DoD Acquisition Budget During Uncertain Times, Stay up to date on the latest from Forecast International, http://www.boeing.com/commercial/#/orders-deliveries, https://www.airbus.com/aircraft/market/orders-deliveries.html, https://www.faa.gov/news/updates/?newsId=93206, https://www.boeing.com/commercial/737max/737-max-update.page, https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=130685, https://boeing.mediaroom.com/news-releases-statements?item=130673, https://boeing.mediaroom.com/2020-04-29-Boeing-Reports-First-Quarter-Results, https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/trafficandcommuting/faa-accused-of-stonewalling-by-senators-pursuing-changes-to-agencys-safety-role-after-boeing-737-max-crashes/2020/06/17/b5c44316-b0c6-11ea-856d-5054296735e5_story.html, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max/u-s-faa-chief-to-testify-at-senate-hearing-on-boeing-737-max-idUSKBN2392YZ, https://www.reuters.com/article/us-boeing-737max/boeing-737-max-expected-to-remain-grounded-until-at-least-august-sources-idUSKCN22A35G, https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/27/business/airbus-furloughs/index.html, https://www.seattletimes.com/business/boeing-aerospace/boeing-to-cut-nearly-10000-jobs-in-washington-more-than-12000-overall/, MTU Aero Engines Sees MRO Recovery In 2021, Airbus and Boeing Report November 2020 Commercial Aircraft Orders and Deliveries, United Aircraft Corporation the Centerpiece of Rostec’s Aviation Cluster, View all posts by Forecast International →, https://www.france24.com/en/20200630-airbus-to-cut-15-000-jobs-worldwide-a-third-of-them-in-france. By the time December was done, Airbus had.. Sorry, your blog cannot share posts by email. Forecast International’s Platinum Forecast System is a breakthrough in forecasting technology which, among many other features, provides 15-year production forecasts. Financial performance: Airbus vs Boeing. In the meantime, test flights and software changes continue. American Airlines put Boeing’s 737 MAX back in the air with passengers Tuesday on … For example, Boeing generated $13.6 billion in FCF in 2018 (the year before the 737 MAX was grounded), representing over 15% of its current market cap. Turning to the second point, the recovery in commercial aviation is widely seen as being led by domestic flights rather than international, and that means narrow-body demand is likely to recover quicker than wide-body. Aircraft are being built at a low rate as more than a dozen initiatives focused on enhancing workplace safety and product quality are being implemented. Middle East & Africa Forecast International’s International Military Markets service provides a country-by-country examination of the military capabilities, equipment requirements, and inventories of over 120 nations. The combined 777/777X production rate will be reduced to three per month in 2021. Boeing has endured a seemingly never-ending series of issues that raise questions about how the company is run. Boeing’s deliveries have suffered for many months in the aftermath of two 737 MAX crashes and the subsequent suspension of deliveries and grounding of the fleet. In addition, the FAA will review and approve training programs for all part 121 operators. EADS/Northrop Grumman KC-45A vs Boeing KC-767 Meanwhile, Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury thinks it will happen "somewhere between 2023 and 2025.". This puts Boeing on track to deliver just 400 aircraft this year, half of what it delivered in 2018. Boeing, like Airbus, announced plans this summer to cut more than 10 percent of its global work force amid a steep decline in travel, which has forced airlines to delay and scale back plans to buy planes. Founded in 1993 by brothers Tom and David Gardner, The Motley Fool helps millions of people attain financial freedom through our website, podcasts, books, newspaper column, radio show, and premium investing services. All of these considerations need to be made before buying either of these stocks, but if you are positive on the industry, which stock is the better buy? Boeing vs. Airbus: The middle of the market battle Score another one for Airbus. It's still a pretty safe bet that the industry will recover, though, and if either stock can get anywhere near the kind of earnings/free cash flow (FCF) generated in 2018/2019, then they will look like a very good value. Pricing for each region begins at $2,295, with discounted full-library subscriptions available. Returns as of 01/12/2021. In 2019, Boeing’s book-to-bill ratio was negative, while Airbus reported a book-to-bill of 0.89. For the full year 2018, Boeing booked 893 net new orders and 1,008 gross orders. Lou has followed the markets for more than two decades, developing extensive contacts … Something completely different; first half a year Boeing results will be interesting, they will be announced on 29-Jul-2020. In the first quarter of 2020, it was 68.6. In 2018, Boeing delivered 806 jets (763 in 2017), with Airbus handing over 800 (718 in 2017). Indeed, Boeing CEO David Calhoun said as much on the last earnings call: "[W]e currently estimate it will take around three years for travel to return to 2019 levels. These include a number of evaluation reviews and reports to be held and issued by the FAA and the Joint Operations Evaluation Board (JOEB), which includes international partners from Canada, Europe, and Brazil. The US planemaker has delivered almost 10,563 737 aircraft. Year-to-date, Boeing has accumulated 59 gross orders (382 cancellations => -323 net new orders). Latin America & Caribbean Prior to COVID-19, Airbus was targeting a 5 percent A320 rate increase to 63 jets per month from 2021, and was also discussing a further ramp-up with its supply chain that could have brought the production rate up to as high as 67 aircraft per month, or 804 per year, by 2023. Governmental and political structures, political and economic trends, national and defense budgets, force structures, military planning requirements, recent and future procurements, the security environment, threat assessments, and military postures – all are detailed in these six services broken out by region (click each title for more details). The author has used the Platinum Forecast System to retrieve the latest delivery forecasts and, for 2020, Forecast International’s analysts expect Boeing and Airbus to deliver 255 and 490 commercial jets, respectively. Deliveries Improve as Boeing and the FAA Complete Three Days of 737 MAX Certification Test Flights. The last time this happened at the firm was back in 1962. Airbus delivered a total of 196 jets from January to June, compared to 389 during the same period last year. For the full year 2019, Boeing accumulated 243 gross orders (330 cancellations => -87 net new orders). Mr. Oestergaard has a Master’s Degree in Finance and International Business from the Aarhus School of Business – Aarhus University in Denmark. Airbus 2020 deliveries demonstrate resilience en. For over 45 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. In comparison, Boeing’s backlog would “only” last 6.5 years at the 2018 level, which we use as a proxy for 2019 due to the severe drop in 737 MAX deliveries. Boeing and Airbus delivered 10 and 36 commercial jets in June 2020 compared to 37 and 76 deliveries, respectively, in the same month last year. Simply put, investors can be forgiven for throwing in the towel on Boeing, and the company really needs a blemish-free period in order to restore confidence. And frankly, the list of potential headwinds for both Boeing and Airbus is lengthy. Coverage includes Civil & Military Aviation, Military Weapons, International Military Markets, Defense Electronics, and Naval and Power Systems worldwide. Yet one is faring better than the other. Market data powered by FactSet and Web Financial Group. Asia, Australia & Pacific Rim Competition Boeing Vs Airbus. On a risk/reward basis, investors will probably feel more comfortable buying Airbus. The company also reported 60 737 MAX cancellations, for a total of -59 net new orders. Image The Boeing Co – The Boeing Co. In addition, Boeing and Airbus will have to make financial concessions to customers, and services revenue can come under threat as older planes are retired. Prior to this, Boeing had retained a deliveries lead over Airbus since 2012. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, Airbus has cut production on several programs and is looking to hold underlying jet output at 40 percent below pre-pandemic plans for two years. No rate cut has been announced for the A220 or the A380. You may opt out of our email promotions at any time by selecting opt out, and your email address will be permanently removed from our list. Boeing 787-9 (Source: Air Lease Corporation) Airbus delivered more than 560 aircraft in 2020, according to tracking data and airline industry sources, putting it on course to beat arch-rival Boeing to be the world's largest planemaker for a second consecutive year. It doesn't stop there. Eurasia Blue collar workers physically making a better world. Boeing’s deliveries continue to suffer in the aftermath of two 737 MAX crashes and the subsequent deliveries halt and grounding of the fleet. But the gap is closing. With just 70 deliveries this year to date, Boeing is 169 shipments behind last year’s total for the first half of the year. Finally, the pandemic may well have a lasting effect on the public's willingness to fly. The 737 MAX debacle is a huge issue in itself, but there's also the problem of management's credibility, particularly regarding a return-to-service (RTS) for the 737 MAX. Defense & Security Monitor, an Aerospace & Defense blog by. Boeing, however, continues to lead Airbus in deliveries of wide-body, larger planes such as Boeing's 787 Dreamliner and Airbus' A350, which enjoy bigger profit margins. Meanwhile, the KC-46 tanker (a military aircraft) has had a raft of issues over the years. The latter figure represents 7.4% of Airbus's current market cap. By comparison, Airbus racked up orders for 654 A320 aircraft, its popular single-aisle competitor to the Max. Airlines have had to ground some 787 planes and manufacturing issues have been found. Boeing also announced that the 787 production rate will be reduced from 14 per month to 10 per month this year, and gradually reduced to seven per month by 2022. The European aerospace group announced Monday that it secured … In addition, Airbus is furloughing 3,163 workers in Spain. Deliveries of 737 MAX aircraft have been on hold since March 2019. In June, Boeing delivered 10 aircraft, including two 737NGs, one 747-8F, three 767s, one 777, and three 787s. On May 27, Boeing announced it had resumed production of the 737 MAX in Renton, Washington. In comparison, Boeing only delivered 20 aircraft in October and a dozen of these were not 737s. Europe Getting life-saving satellite imagery to where it’s needed most. Cumulative Growth of a $10,000 Investment in Stock Advisor, Better Buy: Boeing vs. Airbus @themotleyfool #stocks $BA $EADSY, Dow Jones Slumps 100 Points; Boeing Stock Lower After Fatal Crash; Cisco Fights to Close Acacia Merger, Boeing 737 Crashes Shortly After Takeoff in Indonesia, Boeing Agrees to $244 Million Penalty for 737 MAX Flaws, Airbus Sees Deliveries Plunge 34% as COVID-19 Takes Toll on Airlines, Boeing to Pay $2.5 Billion to Settle 737 MAX Criminal Probe, Copyright, Trademark and Patent Information. Based in Denmark, Joakim Kasper Oestergaard is Forecast International’s AeroWeb and PowerWeb Webmaster and European Editor. Boeing and Airbus have reveled in a decade of airplane sales that outshined any other in history—but the period is ending on a sour note.. The 777-300ER backlog includes two 777-200LRs. The individual country reports are structured to condense a vast range of information into concise segments. Industrial sector focus. The Airbus NSR is expected to be unveiled in the mid-2020’s to be released at the beginning of the 2030’s. Firstly, the manufacturer was able to bring the dispute with Boeing at the WTO to an end, as well as filing its own counter-claim. I write about electrical equipment, transportation, and multi-industry industrial stocks. In the meantime, Boeing announced in May that it plans to cut 12,300 jobs, including nearly 10,000 in Washington. For 2020 to date, Airbus has accumulated 365 gross orders (67 cancellations => net of 298). FI's market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Airbus’ book-to-bill ratio is 1.52, thanks mainly to very strong order bookings in January. Fixing the 737 Max and getting it back in the air is crucial for Boeing. When it came to plane sales, the company recorded its worst record in over five decades as it revealed no new orders in January. In 2018, Airbus booked a total of 747 net new orders and 831 gross orders, thereby losing the 2018 orders race. Post Script: Why not compare Boeing 737 MAX 8 vs Airbus A220/CS300 Many commentators have written in asking why don’t we compare a new plane (A220-300) with Boeing 737 MAX 8. by J. Kasper Oestergaard, European Correspondent, Forecast International. Better Buy: Boeing vs. Airbus ... Apr 18, 2020 at 12:24PM Author Bio. Due to COVID-19, both manufacturers have been forced to temporarily close down production facilities and have announced significant production rate cuts. Stock Advisor launched in February of 2002. Airbus’ CEO Guillaume Faury has told the company’s 135,000 employees to brace for potentially deep job cuts and warned that Airbus’ survival was at stake without immediate action. This particularly affects Boeing and its sales of 737 MAX aircraft. Similarly, Airbus generated 3.5 billion euros in adjusted FCF in 2019 and had expected 4 billion euros in 2020 before the pandemic struck. This is 141 aircraft below the company’s all-time backlog record of 7,725 aircraft set in January 2020. All told, to buy either stock you will need to be bullish on commercial aviation. However, Boeing is still ahead of Airbus in terms of actual delivery numbers. While the commercial aviation industry has been dealt a severe blow by the COVID-19 pandemic, it will surely recover over time, and investors are getting an opportunity to buy into the stocks at a significant discount. However, Airbus has delayed a planned A220 production ramp-up at its Mirabel facility near Montreal, where the company has been producing four A220s per month. As of 31 January 2020, Boeing had no outstanding unfulfilled orders for the 747-8I passenger version and 17 for the 747-8F freighter; Airbus had 11 A380s remaining to be delivered. In June, Airbus delivered one A220, 31 A320s (all NEO), and four A350s. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! Boeing hopes to win regulatory approval in August for the jet’s return to service, although that could be pushed back until fall. The FAA will retain its authority to issue airworthiness certificates and export certificates for all new 737 MAX jets manufactured since the grounding and will perform in-person, individual reviews of these aircraft. Days sales outstanding (a measure of how long it takes to collect money owed) was 30.2 in 2015, 37.6 in 2017, 45.1 in 2018, and 62.5 last year. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. For the full year 2019, Airbus handed over 642 A320 family aircraft, of which 551 were A320neos. Prior to this, Airbus had retained an orders lead over its rival every year since 2012. This would have put the company within reach of a total of 1,000 jets deliveries per year. Moreover, given the precedent set by the global reaction to COVID-19, it's possible that future outbreaks will be dealt with in a severe and pre-emptive fashion. The A320 production rate has been reduced to 40 aircraft per month, down from an average of over 53 aircraft per month in 2019. At the end of June, Airbus’ reported a backlog of 7,584 jets, of which 6,694, or 88 percent, were A220 and A320ceo/neo family narrowbodies. Boeing and Airbus delivered 10 and 36 commercial jets in June 2020 compared to 37 and 76 deliveries, respectively, in the same month last year. But it's not the only major challenge facing the embattled aircraft maker. A Forecast International blog about the arms trade, geopolitics, defense and security, and military spending. The exact timing of a recovery is impossible to predict because it depends on a host of factors relating to the pandemic, not least of which are government restrictions on travel. Production of the 737 MAX was suspended from January of this year until the end of May. Boeing’s all-time backlog high of 5,964 aircraft was set in August 2018. The A330 and A350 programs are reduced to a rate of two and six aircraft per month, respectively. Based on the numbers above and the assumption that commercial aviation will recover in a few years, both stocks look like a good value. 2020 is miserable for Boeing and Airbus, but not to equal amount As is confirmed by the results of aircraft deliveries and orders from the second quarter of 2020, production and sales of commercial aircraft by industry giants Boeing and Airbus shrank dramatically in comparison with 2019. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com. Many industry insiders are estimating that commercial aviation won't return to 2019 levels of activity until 2023. However, the net order inflow was -1 for Airbus and -59 units for Boeing, and at this stage, Boeing and Airbus are both active in a loser’s market. Sales … That's obviously a concern given that the 737 MAX is the aircraft intended to compete with the Airbus A320 NEO in the narrow-body market. Boeing vs airbus sales 2020. The Boeing-Airbus rivalry started when Airbus offered four A300s to Eastern Airlines for a free six-month trial; the airlines liked the aircraft and ordered 23 more aircraft. Last month saw the WTO then rule in favor of Airbus, meaning that a new set of tariffs worth US$4bn per year can be imposed by the European Union. For the full year 2019, Boeing delivered 380 aircraft, while Airbus set a new all-time annual record, handing over 863 jets. Note: Boeing 777-300ER orders include one 777-200LR. By the end of June 2020, Boeing’s backlog (total unfilled orders before ASC 606 adjustment) was 5,232 aircraft, of which 4,221, or 81 percent, were 737 NG/MAX narrowbody jets. In any case, it will be a few years before Boeing is able to hit the monthly production rate of 57 aircraft that was originally planned. Let's take a look at which of the two stocks is a better buy on a risk/reward basis. Prior to the recent 737 MAX production suspension, Boeing was manufacturing the jet at a reduced rate of 42 per month. Following the flights, the FAA announced that, while this was an important milestone, a number of key tasks remain. Airbus and Boeing both confronted a softer market for wide-body aircraft even before the coronavirus hit markets. Mr. Oestergaard is an expert in aerospace & defense market intelligence, fuel efficiency in civil aviation, defense spending and defense programs. And in few days we shall see the order and delivery for Jun-2020 for Boeing. He has an affiliation with Terma Aerostructures A/S in Denmark – a leading manufacturer of composite and metal aerostructures for the F-35 Lightning II. Source: U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Both aspirations will be severely challenged in the aftermath of the pandemic. Management had high hopes for the new 777X aircraft to spur a new round of wide-body replacement demand, while also benefiting from ongoing sales of the 787. Follow me on Twitter to receive quick and thorough analysis of your favorite stocks. Recently, Boeing carried out a second round of layoffs involving an additional 1,030 employees companywide. This compares to a total of 386 A320neo family aircraft delivered in 2018, up from 181 and 68 in 2017 and 2016, respectively. The biggest shock … Turning to the orders race, in June, Boeing booked an order from FedEx for one 767-300F. However, investors also need to consider the downside risks, and there appear to be more of them with Boeing than there are with Airbus right now. Space 08 January 2021 Airbus signs multi-satellite contract with Intelsat for OneSat flexible satellites en. On June 30, Airbus announced it plans to cut 14,000 jobs (5,000 in France, 5,100 in Germany, 900 in Spain, 1,700 in the U.K. and 1,300 elsewhere) as it deals with the effects of the coronavirus crisis. Subscribe to receive up-to-date news on market developments, along with trend analysis and contract announcements. Airbus has been struggling to grow its revenues in the last five years, having registered a CAGR of 0.97% since 2014 compared to its rival Boeing, whose revenues grew almost three times faster, at 2.74%, over the same period. Delivered 77 aircraft, its popular single-aisle competitor to the suspension of deliveries in the aftermath of the pandemic well. Likely to continue in the aftermath of the market battle Score another one for Airbus thinks it will severely. Has accumulated 365 gross orders ( 382 cancellations = > -323 net new orders and deliveries in March 2019 08... Furloughing 3,163 workers in Spain as 2020 came around, Boeing was reporting some alarming.! 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